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2008 President · FL

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2008-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 1,158 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.03% · Republican 48.22%

D+2.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.033 − 48.215 = 2.818
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (2.818) = -1.818
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.818| = 1.818

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16804, race ID 713 (538 database).