2008 Senate · NJ
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2008-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 1,184 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 33%
D+22.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.03% · Republican 41.95%
D+14.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 33 = 22.00
- Actual margin = 56.030 − 41.954 = 14.076
- Signed miss = 22.00 − (14.076) = 7.924
- Absolute miss = |7.924| = 7.924
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16805, race ID 1567 (538 database).