2008 President · NJ
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2008-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 1,184 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 59% · Republican 36%
D+23.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.27% · Republican 41.70%
D+15.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 59 − 36 = 23.00
- Actual margin = 57.272 − 41.704 = 15.568
- Signed miss = 23.00 − (15.568) = 7.432
- Absolute miss = |7.432| = 7.432
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16805, race ID 735 (538 database).