2008 House · WY-1
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 604 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 50%
R+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.81% · Republican 52.63%
R+9.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 50 = -6.00
- Actual margin = 42.807 − 52.625 = -9.818
- Signed miss = -6.00 − (-9.818) = 3.818
- Absolute miss = |3.818| = 3.818
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16811, race ID 4460 (538 database).