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2008 Senate · MN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-17 (18 days before the election) · 655 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 41%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.99% · Republican 41.98%

even

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 41 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.994 − 41.983 = 0.011
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (0.011) = -2.011
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.011| = 2.011

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16819, race ID 1561 (538 database).