2008 Senate · MN
Princeton Survey Research Associates International · fieldwork ended 2008-10-16 (19 days before the election) · 1,049 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 36%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.99% · Republican 41.98%
even
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 36 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 41.994 − 41.983 = 0.011
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (0.011) = 2.989
- Absolute miss = |2.989| = 2.989
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16825, race ID 1561 (538 database).