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2008 House · ME-2

Pan Atlantic Research · fieldwork ended 2008-10-15 (20 days before the election) · 193 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 60% · Republican 26%

D+34.0

The certified result

Democrat 67.44% · Republican 32.56%

D+34.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60 − 26 = 34.00
  2. Actual margin = 67.435 − 32.565 = 34.870
  3. Signed miss = 34.00 − (34.870) = -0.871
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.871| = 0.871

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16830, race ID 4205 (538 database).