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2008 Senate · CO

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2008-10-16 (19 days before the election) · 700 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 44%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.80% · Republican 42.49%

D+10.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 44 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.796 − 42.492 = 10.304
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (10.304) = -3.304
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.304| = 3.304

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16833, race ID 1548 (538 database).