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2008 President · CA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-15 (20 days before the election) · 615 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 59% · Republican 35%

D+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.01% · Republican 36.95%

D+24.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 59 − 35 = 24.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.013 − 36.955 = 24.058
  3. Signed miss = 24.00 − (24.058) = -0.058
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.058| = 0.058

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16836, race ID 708 (538 database).