2008 Senate · SD
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2008-10-14 (21 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 57% · Republican 34%
D+23.0
The certified result
Democrat 62.49% · Republican 37.51%
D+25.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 57 − 34 = 23.00
- Actual margin = 62.492 − 37.508 = 24.984
- Signed miss = 23.00 − (24.984) = -1.983
- Absolute miss = |-1.983| = 1.983
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16846, race ID 1574 (538 database).