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2012 Governor · WI

Princeton Survey Research Associates International · fieldwork ended 2012-05-16 (20 days before the election) · 609 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 50%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.28% · Republican 53.08%

R+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 50 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.282 − 53.082 = -6.800
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-6.800) = -1.200
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.200| = 1.200

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 18674, race ID 1269 (538 database).