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2011 Governor · WV

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2011-10-01 (3 days before the election) · 932 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 46%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.55% · Republican 47.05%

D+2.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 46 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.555 − 47.049 = 2.506
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (2.506) = -1.506
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.506| = 1.506

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 191, race ID 1273 (538 database).