2008 Senate · LA
OnMessage Inc. · fieldwork ended 2008-10-15 (20 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 42%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.11% · Republican 45.72%
D+6.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 42 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 52.110 − 45.723 = 6.387
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (6.387) = -1.386
- Absolute miss = |-1.386| = 1.386
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24113, race ID 1557 (538 database).