2008 Senate · GA
Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2008-11-29 (3 days before the election) · 1,276 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 53%
R+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.56% · Republican 57.44%
R+14.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 53 = -7.00
- Actual margin = 42.560 − 57.440 = -14.880
- Signed miss = -7.00 − (-14.880) = 7.879
- Absolute miss = |7.879| = 7.879
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24114, race ID 1551 (538 database).