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2006 Governor · OH

Columbus Dispatch · fieldwork ended 2006-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 1,541 respondents · Mail

The poll said

Democrat 67% · Republican 31%

D+36.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.54% · Republican 36.65%

D+23.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 67 − 31 = 36.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.541 − 36.648 = 23.893
  3. Signed miss = 36.00 − (23.893) = 12.108
  4. Absolute miss = |12.108| = 12.108

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24228, race ID 1351 (538 database).