2006 Governor · ME
Digital Research · fieldwork ended 2006-10-20 (18 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 25%
D+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 38.11% · Republican 30.21%
D+7.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 25 = 17.00
- Actual margin = 38.109 − 30.212 = 7.897
- Signed miss = 17.00 − (7.897) = 9.103
- Absolute miss = |9.103| = 9.103
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24230, race ID 1343 (538 database).