2006 House · ME-1
Digital Research · fieldwork ended 2006-10-20 (18 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 62% · Republican 18%
D+44.0
The certified result
Democrat 60.84% · Republican 31.32%
D+29.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 62 − 18 = 44.00
- Actual margin = 60.839 − 31.321 = 29.518
- Signed miss = 44.00 − (29.518) = 14.483
- Absolute miss = |14.483| = 14.483
The poll overstated the Democrat by 14.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24230, race ID 3769 (538 database).