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2006 Senate · WA

Elway Research · fieldwork ended 2006-10-20 (18 days before the election) · 405 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 34%

D+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.85% · Republican 39.93%

D+16.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 34 = 18.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.853 − 39.933 = 16.920
  3. Signed miss = 18.00 − (16.920) = 1.081
  4. Absolute miss = |1.081| = 1.081

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24236, race ID 1610 (538 database).