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2006 Governor · MI

EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 42%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.36% · Republican 42.30%

D+14.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 42 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.363 − 42.304 = 14.059
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (14.059) = -4.059
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.059| = 4.059

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24242, race ID 1344 (538 database).