2006 Senate · MI
EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 38%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.91% · Republican 41.26%
D+15.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 38 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 56.910 − 41.258 = 15.652
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (15.652) = -1.652
- Absolute miss = |-1.652| = 1.652
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24242, race ID 1591 (538 database).