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2006 Senate · CA

Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 795 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 33%

D+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.43% · Republican 35.02%

D+24.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 33 = 22.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.431 − 35.015 = 24.416
  3. Signed miss = 22.00 − (24.416) = -2.416
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.416| = 2.416

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24258, race ID 1582 (538 database).