2006 Senate · MT
Gallup · fieldwork ended 2006-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 734 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 41%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.16% · Republican 48.29%
D+0.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 41 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 49.162 − 48.286 = 0.876
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (0.876) = 8.124
- Absolute miss = |8.124| = 8.124
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24277, race ID 1595 (538 database).