2006 Senate · MO
Los Angeles Times · fieldwork ended 2006-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 593 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 48%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.58% · Republican 47.31%
D+2.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 48 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 49.578 − 47.308 = 2.270
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (2.270) = -5.270
- Absolute miss = |-5.270| = 5.270
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.3 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24310, race ID 1594 (538 database).