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2006 Senate · NJ

Los Angeles Times · fieldwork ended 2006-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 314 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 41%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.20% · Republican 41.19%

D+16.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 41 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.204 − 41.185 = 16.019
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (16.019) = -12.019
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.019| = 12.019

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24311, race ID 1598 (538 database).