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2006 Senate · OH

Los Angeles Times · fieldwork ended 2006-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 507 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 39%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.16% · Republican 43.81%

D+12.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 39 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.164 − 43.815 = 12.349
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (12.349) = -4.349
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.349| = 4.349

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24312, race ID 1602 (538 database).