2006 Governor · NY
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2006-10-17 (21 days before the election) · 475 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 73% · Republican 22%
D+51.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.34% · Republican 23.54%
D+34.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 73 − 22 = 51.00
- Actual margin = 58.343 − 23.536 = 34.807
- Signed miss = 51.00 − (34.807) = 16.193
- Absolute miss = |16.193| = 16.193
The poll overstated the Democrat by 16.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24319, race ID 1350 (538 database).