2006 Senate · NY
Marist College · fieldwork ended 2006-10-17 (21 days before the election) · 475 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 67% · Republican 31%
D+36.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.42% · Republican 25.80%
D+31.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 67 − 31 = 36.00
- Actual margin = 57.416 − 25.803 = 31.613
- Signed miss = 36.00 − (31.613) = 4.387
- Absolute miss = |4.387| = 4.387
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24319, race ID 1600 (538 database).