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2006 Governor · AZ

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 61% · Republican 33%

D+28.0

The certified result

Democrat 62.59% · Republican 35.44%

D+27.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 61 − 33 = 28.00
  2. Actual margin = 62.585 − 35.440 = 27.145
  3. Signed miss = 28.00 − (27.145) = 0.855
  4. Absolute miss = |0.855| = 0.855

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24325, race ID 1330 (538 database).