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2006 Senate · FL

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 34%

D+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.30% · Republican 38.10%

D+22.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 34 = 24.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.301 − 38.096 = 22.205
  3. Signed miss = 24.00 − (22.205) = 1.795
  4. Absolute miss = |1.795| = 1.795

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24327, race ID 1585 (538 database).