2006 Senate · MI
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 37%
D+16.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.91% · Republican 41.26%
D+15.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 37 = 16.00
- Actual margin = 56.910 − 41.258 = 15.652
- Signed miss = 16.00 − (15.652) = 0.348
- Absolute miss = |0.348| = 0.348
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24334, race ID 1591 (538 database).