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2006 Senate · MN

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 40%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.06% · Republican 37.94%

D+20.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 40 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.056 − 37.936 = 20.120
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (20.120) = -10.120
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.120| = 10.120

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24335, race ID 1592 (538 database).