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2006 Senate · MO

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-10-18 (20 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 43%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.58% · Republican 47.31%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 43 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.578 − 47.308 = 2.270
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (2.270) = 0.730
  4. Absolute miss = |0.730| = 0.730

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24338, race ID 1594 (538 database).