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2006 Senate · MT

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 49.16% · Republican 48.29%

D+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.162 − 48.286 = 0.876
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (0.876) = -0.876
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.876| = 0.876

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24340, race ID 1595 (538 database).