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2006 Governor · NV

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 44%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.92% · Republican 47.93%

R+4.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 44 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.920 − 47.926 = -4.006
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-4.006) = 0.006
  4. Absolute miss = |0.006| = 0.006

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24349, race ID 1349 (538 database).