2006 House · NV-2
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 47%
R+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.94% · Republican 50.35%
R+5.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 47 = -8.00
- Actual margin = 44.943 − 50.346 = -5.403
- Signed miss = -8.00 − (-5.403) = -2.597
- Absolute miss = |-2.597| = 2.597
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24349, race ID 3830 (538 database).