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2006 House · NV-3

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 46%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.57% · Republican 48.46%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 46 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.574 − 48.456 = -1.882
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-1.882) = -5.118
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.118| = 5.118

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24349, race ID 3831 (538 database).