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2006 Senate · RI

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 46%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.52% · Republican 46.48%

D+7.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 46 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.519 − 46.481 = 7.038
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (7.038) = -8.037
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.037| = 8.037

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24360, race ID 1604 (538 database).