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2006 Senate · TN

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 50%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.99% · Republican 50.71%

R+2.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 50 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.989 − 50.712 = -2.723
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-2.723) = -9.277
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.277| = 9.277

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24363, race ID 1605 (538 database).