2006 Governor · TN
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2006-10-19 (19 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 62% · Republican 27%
D+35.0
The certified result
Democrat 68.60% · Republican 29.74%
D+38.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 62 − 27 = 35.00
- Actual margin = 68.598 − 29.741 = 38.857
- Signed miss = 35.00 − (38.857) = -3.857
- Absolute miss = |-3.857| = 3.857
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24364, race ID 1357 (538 database).