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2006 Senate · NJ

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2006-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 1,086 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 42%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.20% · Republican 41.19%

D+16.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 42 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.204 − 41.185 = 16.019
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (16.019) = -13.019
  4. Absolute miss = |-13.019| = 13.019

The poll overstated the Republican by 13.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24379, race ID 1598 (538 database).