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2006 Senate · PA

Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 507 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 43%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.64% · Republican 41.28%

D+17.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 43 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.637 − 41.283 = 17.354
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (17.354) = -9.354
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.354| = 9.354

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24385, race ID 1603 (538 database).