2006 Governor · CT
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2006-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 926 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 35% · Republican 59%
R+24.0
The certified result
Democrat 35.45% · Republican 63.20%
R+27.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 35 − 59 = -24.00
- Actual margin = 35.446 − 63.202 = -27.756
- Signed miss = -24.00 − (-27.756) = 3.756
- Absolute miss = |3.756| = 3.756
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24414, race ID 1333 (538 database).