2006 Senate · PA
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2006-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 933 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 42%
D+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.64% · Republican 41.28%
D+17.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 42 = 10.00
- Actual margin = 58.637 − 41.283 = 17.354
- Signed miss = 10.00 − (17.354) = -7.354
- Absolute miss = |-7.354| = 7.354
The poll overstated the Republican by 7.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24449, race ID 1603 (538 database).