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2006 Senate · CT

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 9%

D+31.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.73% · Republican 9.62%

D+30.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 9 = 31.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.730 − 9.623 = 30.107
  3. Signed miss = 31.00 − (30.107) = 0.893
  4. Absolute miss = |0.893| = 0.893

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24472, race ID 1583 (538 database).