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2006 Senate · MI

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 40%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.91% · Republican 41.26%

D+15.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 40 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.910 − 41.258 = 15.652
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (15.652) = 0.348
  4. Absolute miss = |0.348| = 0.348

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24503, race ID 1591 (538 database).