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2006 Governor · NV

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-17 (21 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 51%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.92% · Republican 47.93%

R+4.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 51 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.920 − 47.926 = -4.006
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-4.006) = -3.994
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.994| = 3.994

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24578, race ID 1349 (538 database).