Skip to content

2006 Senate · NV

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-17 (21 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 52%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.99% · Republican 55.36%

R+14.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 52 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.990 − 55.358 = -14.368
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-14.368) = 5.368
  4. Absolute miss = |5.368| = 5.368

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24578, race ID 1597 (538 database).