Skip to content

2006 Governor · PA

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 38%

D+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.37% · Republican 39.63%

D+20.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 38 = 18.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.365 − 39.635 = 20.730
  3. Signed miss = 18.00 − (20.730) = -2.729
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.729| = 2.729

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24595, race ID 1353 (538 database).