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2006 Senate · PA

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2006-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 42%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.64% · Republican 41.28%

D+17.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 42 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.637 − 41.283 = 17.354
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (17.354) = -4.354
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.354| = 4.354

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24595, race ID 1603 (538 database).