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2006 Senate · FL

SEA Polling & Strategic Design · fieldwork ended 2006-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 30%

D+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.30% · Republican 38.10%

D+22.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 30 = 26.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.301 − 38.096 = 22.205
  3. Signed miss = 26.00 − (22.205) = 3.795
  4. Absolute miss = |3.795| = 3.795

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24705, race ID 1585 (538 database).